The Full Story Behind Ladbrokes Ayr Gold Cup (Class 2 Heritage Handicap)

The opening

There is something about Twilight Calls that makes me want to take the chance, and Saffie Osborne can cap another wonderful Saturday by landing the Ayr Gold Cup. His recent exertions are the obvious question after finishing second in the Portland only seven days ago, but connections are bullish about turning him out again and there is a compelling argument that the return to six furlongs will suit him even better. He comes here at the top of his game, carries just 8st 11lb and, while the soft ground asks another question, his current form makes him the one I want on my side.

The case

If price didn't matter, Binhareer would probably have been my selection. He is one of the least exposed horses in this enormous field and there remains the tantalising possibility that we haven't yet discovered how good he is. William Haggas has a four-year-old with proven big-field handicap form, and importantly he has already experienced six furlongs at Ayr on soft ground. There could be a major sprint handicap in him, perhaps even something more, but at 9/2 the market has already found him; I'd rather take 8/1 about Twilight Calls.

Dance In The Storm is another progressive runner with relatively few miles on the clock and deserves enormous respect after showing she can operate effectively over six furlongs; the softer Ayr surface is the question she now has to answer. But my outsider is Run Boy Run. In a race this competitive, proven evidence under the exact conditions carries real weight: he won this race last year on soft ground. His recent profile isn't as fashionable as those at the head of the market, but returning to Ayr, back over six furlongs and with conditions that hold no fears makes 22/1 very difficult for me to ignore.

The verdict

I'm going with TWILIGHT CALLS at 8/1. The Portland coming only a week ago is the gamble, and soft ground adds another variable, but sometimes you have to recognise a horse thriving at exactly the right moment. Connections appear happy to come here quickly, six furlongs can bring out even more from him, and Saffie Osborne gets the opportunity to put the finishing touch on another memorable Saturday. Binhareer is the horse I fear most and could simply be brilliant, but at the prices the Fox goes with Twilight Calls.