The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 2 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction
15:08 Yarmouth Juddmonte Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Lay Keep Grating

Price
11/10
Liability
£1.10
Prob. of losing
73%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 43%
Sly Man says fav wins 27%
Lay edge +16pp The market rates the fav 16 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 89 vs field mean 121.0 (z = -1.72)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 16:30 Galway
    Star Glory
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    18/13
    Loses 73%
  2. 14:10 Chester
    Timber Twelve
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    3/2
    Loses 72%
  3. 15:20 Chester
    Calico Blue
    Class rise Today rank 2 vs last-time-out rank 4 (delta -2). Rising in class.
    21/13
    Loses 65%
  4. 15:52 Chester
    Dance In The Storm
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    7/4
    Loses 67%
  5. 15:30 Galway
    Le Nez Creux
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    10/3
    Loses 74%