The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 7 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Verify
15:30 Gowran Park Pat Carroll's Pub Kilkenny Mares Handicap Hurdle (Div I)

Lay A Snow White Park

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
59%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 41%
Lay edge +19pp The market rates the fav 19 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 17:00 Southwell (AW)
    Go On My Son
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    5/4
    Loses 71%
  2. 14:20 Gowran Park
    Reckless
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    5/4
    Loses 71%
  3. 12:15 Uttoxeter
    Lunar Trix
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    11/10
    Loses 66%
  4. 13:20 Gowran Park
    Break My Soul
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    7/4
    Loses 74%
  5. 13:15 Aintree
    Kadastral
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    21/13
    Loses 72%