The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 31 August 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day Medium conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
14:25 Epsom Irish Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Lay Summer Triangle

Price
3/2
Liability
£1.50
Chance of losing
79%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 36%
Sly Man says fav wins 21%
Lay edge +15pp The market rates the fav 15 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 83 vs field mean 131.9 (z = -2.37)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:55 Ripon
    Arenite
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    3/2
    Loses 77%
  2. 14:20 Chepstow
    Ischgl
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 71%
  3. 16:00 Chepstow
    Rovinia
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 71%
  4. 18:55 Roscommon
    Almazann
    Model vs market SR 96 vs field mean 111.0 (z = -0.59)
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 69%