The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 1 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
14:00 Gowran Park Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Lay Zenith Blaze

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:00 Gowran Park
    Starborn Legend
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 70%
  2. 14:40 Ripon
    Empress Princess
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 65%
  3. 17:12 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Jessica
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 66%