The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 2 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
16:50 Hamilton Heineken Low & No Bar Ebf Maiden Stakes (gbb Race)

Lay Sod Hall Lane

Price
10/11
Liability
£0.91
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 47%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +18pp The market rates the fav 18 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 16:30 Bath
    Buckland Belle
    Trainer form drift Trainer Ollie Sangster: 5/59 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (on par).
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 67%
  2. 18:20 Hamilton
    Battle Fever
    Trainer form drift Trainer Kevin Ryan: 4/69 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 69%
  3. 17:40 Navan
    Let's Smash It
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    32/17
    Loses 78%
  4. 16:07 Navan
    Bit Of A Buzz
    Model vs market SR 78 vs field mean 122.6 (z = -1.60)
    Lay landed
    7/4
    Loses 76%