The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 3 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify

16:40 Kilbeggan Connolly's RED MILLS Irish EBF Auction & Median Maiden Hurdle

Lay Splendid Fellow

Price: 5/6
Liability: £0.83
Chance of losing: 76%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 49%

Sly Man says fav wins 24%

Lay edge +25pp The market rates the fav 25 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

14:05 Haydock

Burning Up

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

1/2

Loses 65%
18:10 Southwell (AW)

Castlemont

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

1/2

Loses 65%
14:28 Salisbury

Night Star

Model vs market SR 90 vs field mean 131.0 (z = -2.35)
Lay landed

18/13

Loses 78%
14:40 Haydock

Flying Pirate

Model vs market SR 92 vs field mean 120.7 (z = -1.40)
Fav won

11/10

Loses 72%
16:25 Haydock

Hoseki

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

11/10

Loses 69%