The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 4 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
17:21 Kempton (AW) Unibet/british Stallion Studs Ebf Restricted Novice Stakes (for Horses In Bands B, C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Lay Sontsivka

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
64%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 36%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Hugo Palmer: 4/80 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 18:06 Worcester
    Elated
    Model vs market SR 103 vs field mean 122.8 (z = -1.03)
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 71%
  2. 17:15 Kilbeggan
    Speed For Fun
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 76%
  3. 15:40 Ascot
    Pure Mint
    Class rise Today rank 3 vs last-time-out rank 5 (delta -2). Rising in class.
    Lay landed
    2/3
    Loses 65%
  4. 13:30 Haydock
    Zimmerman
    Class rise Today rank 6 vs last-time-out rank 7 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 67%
  5. 19:54 Kempton (AW)
    Newsreader
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    2/1
    Loses 76%