The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 5 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
13:30 Navan Irish EBF Auction Series Fillies Maiden

Lay Roeillaun

Price
5/6
Liability
£0.83
Chance of losing
76%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 49%
Sly Man says fav wins 24%
Lay edge +25pp The market rates the fav 25 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 86 vs field mean 116.9 (z = -0.99)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:40 Ascot
    Thunder Call
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 68%
  2. 15:25 Ascot
    Gavriel
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 73%
  3. 17:20 Newcastle (AW)
    Foxy Night
    Model vs market SR 91 vs field mean 130.2 (z = -1.92)
    Lay landed
    32/17
    Loses 79%
  4. 17:30 Navan
    Handani
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    32/17
    Loses 78%
  5. 16:05 Stratford
    At The Oche
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 68%