The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 6 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Void Verify
17:15 Fontwell Free Race Replays On Attheraces.com Mares' Open National Hunt Flat Race

Lay Delulu

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +28pp The market rates the fav 28 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:30 York
    Izuba
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 69%