The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 7 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
16:45 Windsor G J Colairo Diamond Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Lay Without Prejudice

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
67%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 33%
Lay edge +26pp The market rates the fav 26 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:00 Newton Abbot
    Moment Of Light
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 73%
  2. 16:57 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Roxa Love
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 75%
  3. 18:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Pon Pon Dalia
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    4/7
    Loses 65%
  4. 16:15 Windsor
    Raaheeb
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 71%
  5. 14:42 Windsor
    Romotoso
    Model vs market SR 82 vs field mean 117.9 (z = -1.20)
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 70%