The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 8 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify

14:05 Goodwood British Ebf Peter Willett Future Stayers' Maiden Stakes (Sire And Dam Restricted Race) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Lay Quicken Away

Price: 4/7
Liability: £0.57
Chance of losing: 66%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 57%

Sly Man says fav wins 34%

Lay edge +22pp The market rates the fav 22 points higher than we do.

Class rise Today rank 3 vs last-time-out rank 4 (delta -1). Rising in class.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

17:42 Bangor-on-Dee

Hidden Fortune

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

10/11

Loses 67%
17:51 Catterick

Zimmerman

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

11/10

Loses 71%
14:28 Catterick

Persian Gate

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Lay landed

11/10

Loses 66%
17:00 Goodwood

Old Is Gold

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

21/13

Loses 73%
13:53 Catterick

Aura Of Melania

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Lay landed

5/4

Loses 67%