The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 9 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
19:00 Kempton (AW) Unibet Supporting Safer Gambling Fillies' Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Lay Enchanted Queen

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
75%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 25%
Lay edge +28pp The market rates the fav 28 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 89 vs field mean 121.8 (z = -1.47)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 18:30 Kempton (AW)
    Lex Victoria
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 61%
  2. 18:45 Cork
    Almeiyda
    Model vs market SR 93 vs field mean 128.4 (z = -2.80)
    Lay landed
    2/1
    Loses 79%
  3. 14:30 Sedgefield
    Stellarmasterpiece
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 66%