The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 10 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
15:13 Lingfield (AW) Sky Sports Racing Virgin 512 Restricted Maiden Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Lay Marquessofanglesey

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
75%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 25%
Lay edge +29pp The market rates the fav 29 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 92 vs field mean 120.1 (z = -0.78)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:48 Lingfield (AW)
    Takaaful
    Model vs market SR 93 vs field mean 116.6 (z = -1.09)
    Lay landed
    2/3
    Loses 69%
  2. 14:45 Worcester
    Delulu
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 68%
  3. 13:50 Doncaster
    Night In Vegas
    Trainer form drift Trainer Eve Johnson Houghton: 4/76 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 68%
  4. 15:42 Epsom
    Crooked Path
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    21/13
    Loses 71%