The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 11 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day Medium conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify

15:00 Doncaster Betfred Howard Wright Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group 2)

Lay Caballo De Mar

Price: 5/4
Liability: £1.25
Chance of losing: 66%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 40%

Sly Man says fav wins 34%

Lay edge +5pp The market rates the fav 5 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer George Scott: 3/45 = 7% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).