The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 12 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
16:42 Musselburgh Ebf Restricted Maiden Stakes (for Horses In Bands C And D) (Ebf Restricted Race Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Lay Extragalactic

Price
4/7
Liability
£0.57
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 57%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +24pp The market rates the fav 24 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:40 Chester
    Night Star
    Model vs market SR 94 vs field mean 129.6 (z = -2.13)
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 74%
  2. 14:55 Doncaster
    More Thunder
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    10/11
    Loses 72%
  3. 14:30 Bath
    Baarberini
    Model vs market SR 82 vs field mean 129.5 (z = -2.70)
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 77%
  4. 15:55 Leopardstown
    Blue Bolt
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 61%
  5. 17:15 Lingfield (AW)
    Royal County Glory
    Trainer form drift Trainer Jack Jones: 3/38 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 70%