The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 13 September 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
16:25 Bath Loud Hire Equipment Rental Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands B, C And D) (GBB Race)

Lay Big Hitter

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
75%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 25%
Lay edge +29pp The market rates the fav 29 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:50 Curragh
    Sun Goddess
    Class rise Today rank 2 vs last-time-out rank 3 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    Fav won
    8/13
    Loses 66%
  2. 17:10 Curragh
    Thundering On
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Evs
    Loses 69%
  3. 14:40 Bath
    Q T Boy
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    21/13
    Loses 72%