The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 5 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
19:45 Kempton (AW) Racing TV Handicap Stakes

Lay Ridger

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
70%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 30%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Ollie Sangster: 3/58 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:30 Fairyhouse
    State Pension
    Trainer form drift Trainer David Harry Kelly: 2/24 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (on par).
    Fav won
    4/7
    Loses 66%
  2. 15:55 Killarney
    Together Now
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    8/11
    Loses 69%
  3. 13:50 Yarmouth
    Claudette
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 73%
  4. 17:15 Kempton (AW)
    Noble Journey
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    9/17
    Loses 59%
  5. 13:35 Killarney
    Gliondar
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 69%