The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 8 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
13:16 Thurles Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Lay Silver Kiss

Price
5/6
Liability
£0.83
Chance of losing
76%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 49%
Sly Man says fav wins 24%
Lay edge +25pp The market rates the fav 25 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 108 vs field mean 133.4 (z = -1.87)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 17:30 Southwell (AW)
    Summer In Paris
    Model vs market SR 86 vs field mean 128.9 (z = -1.94)
    Lay landed
    7/4
    Loses 80%
  2. 14:20 Ayr
    Caturra Rock
    Trainer form drift Trainer Ed Dunlop: 3/53 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 67%
  3. 14:10 Tramore
    Llem's
    Trainer form drift Recent form '8F-' — latest 1st position carries decay-weighted average of -1.13.
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 69%
  4. 17:05 Tramore
    Rattledelatch
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 65%
  5. 16:43 Thurles
    Teofil
    Trainer form drift Trainer J S Bolger: 1/20 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    3/2
    Loses 71%