The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 11 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
13:27 Chepstow Dragonbet / Ebf Mares' 'national Hunt' Novices' Hurdle Race (Ebf Mares' Nh Novices' Hurdle Series Qualifier) (GBB Race)

Lay Princess Day

Price
4/5
Liability
£0.80
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 50%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +17pp The market rates the fav 17 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Jeremy Scott: 0/14 = 0% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:02 Cork
    World Of The Way
    Trainer form drift Trainer Henry de Bromhead: 9/117 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 71%
  2. 13:20 Naas
    Film Set
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    2/1
    Loses 80%
  3. 17:07 Cork
    Passenger
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    6/5
    Loses 67%