The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 14 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
14:00 Wetherby Visit racingtv.com Juvenile Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Lay Magnetude

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
65%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 35%
Lay edge +24pp The market rates the fav 24 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:04 Nottingham
    Knights Charge
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    2/3
    Loses 68%
  2. 17:13 Ffos Las
    Gingerbred
    Model vs market SR 75 vs field mean 80.3 (z = -0.36)
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 75%
  3. 16:25 Kempton (AW)
    Hayate
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    18/13
    Loses 73%
  4. 13:54 Nottingham
    Lone Warrior
    Model vs market SR 89 vs field mean 123.2 (z = -1.99)
    Lay landed
    7/4
    Loses 77%