The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 16 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
16:53 Uttoxeter QuinnBet Mares' National Hunt Flat Race (Conditional And Amateur Jockeys' Race) (Category 1 Elimination) (GBB Race)

Lay Madam Speaker

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
68%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 32%
Lay edge +21pp The market rates the fav 21 points higher than we do.

Trainer form drift Trainer Nicky Henderson: 0/5 = 0% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:52 Redcar
    My Girl Dee Mo
    Model vs market SR 92 vs field mean 121.3 (z = -1.35)
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 74%