The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 23 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
17:30 Wolverhampton (AW) All Weather Championship Is Back Ebf Restricted Maiden Fillies' Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Lay Jahami

Price
11/10
Liability
£1.10
Chance of losing
80%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 43%
Sly Man says fav wins 20%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 81 vs field mean 128.9 (z = -2.68)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 16:25 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Battle Standard
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    8/11
    Loses 69%
  2. 16:20 Sligo
    Union Station
    Trainer form drift Trainer Gavin Cromwell: 8/110 = 7% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 70%
  3. 16:10 Cheltenham
    Mr Hollywood
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 68%
  4. 18:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Stoney Wood
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 74%
  5. 15:20 Doncaster
    Desert Romance
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 63%