The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 24 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
14:05 Doncaster William Hill Remembering Sue Wright Prospect Stakes (registered As The Doncaster Stakes) (Listed Race)

Lay Bengal Tiger

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +25pp The market rates the fav 25 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 18:30 Southwell (AW)
    Geometry
    Model vs market SR 92 vs field mean 132.3 (z = -2.39)
    Fav won
    18/13
    Loses 77%
  2. 14:35 Newbury
    Aegean Prince
    Class rise Today rank 2 vs last-time-out rank 3 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    11/10
    Loses 67%
  3. 13:30 Doncaster
    Noble Exhibit
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 64%
  4. 18:00 Southwell (AW)
    National Anthem
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    7/4
    Loses 74%