The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 25 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
13:35 Market Rasen Book Boxing Day At Market Rasen Juvenile Hurdle Race (gbb Race)

Lay Don Dandy

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +24pp The market rates the fav 24 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:40 Wexford
    Square Necker
    Trainer form drift Trainer Emmet Mullins: 1/30 = 3% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    2/3
    Loses 69%
  2. 15:56 Galway
    Bulgaden Castle
    Trainer form drift Trainer P J Rothwell: 1/86 = 1% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 68%
  3. 13:00 Market Rasen
    Moore Brion
    Class rise Today rank 5 vs last-time-out rank 6 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 65%
  4. 14:17 Galway
    Light Up The Dark
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 68%
  5. 16:30 Galway
    Moscovite
    Trainer form drift Trainer Gavin Cromwell: 8/110 = 7% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    3/2
    Loses 71%