The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 26 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Void Verify

13:48 Hereford Betting.Bet Play Champion Tipster Juvenile Maiden Hurdle Race (Div I) (GBB Race)

Lay Charles Darnay

Price: 9/17
Liability: £0.53
Chance of losing: 72%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 58%

Sly Man says fav wins 28%

Lay edge +30pp The market rates the fav 30 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

13:37 Leicester

Rogue Constelation

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

8/13

Loses 73%
17:15 Kempton (AW)

Showmaster

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

9/17

Loses 69%
13:42 Galway

Sharkeyboy

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
Fav won

8/11

Loses 74%
14:45 Galway

Boycetown

Trainer form drift Trainer Gavin Cromwell: 10/115 = 9% strike rate over the last 30 days (on par).
Lay landed

8/13

Loses 66%
16:10 Kempton (AW)

Imperial Ballet

Model vs market SR 91 vs field mean 126.3 (z = -2.04)
Fav won

6/5

Loses 78%