The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 27 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
12:40 Catterick Racing To School EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Cyberspace

Price
11/10
Liability
£1.10
Chance of losing
78%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 43%
Sly Man says fav wins 22%
Lay edge +20pp The market rates the fav 20 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 17:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Show Me Glory
    Model vs market SR 85 vs field mean 132.6 (z = -2.13)
    Fav won
    3/2
    Loses 79%
  2. 18:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Ridger
    Trainer form drift Trainer Ollie Sangster: 5/56 = 9% strike rate over the last 30 days (on par).
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 64%
  3. 14:12 Galway
    Wecouldavehaditall
    Trainer form drift Recent form '90736' — latest 1st position carries decay-weighted average of -0.21.
    21/13
    Loses 75%
  4. 12:50 Galway
    Wunderschon
    Model vs market SR 99 vs field mean 128.3 (z = -1.06)
    3/2
    Loses 71%
  5. 20:30 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Macanudo
    Trainer form drift Trainer Ian Williams: 4/82 = 5% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    3/2
    Loses 69%