The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 28 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
17:00 Dundalk (AW) Irish Stallion Farms EBF Auction Maiden

Lay Crayons In The Sky

Price
8/11
Liability
£0.73
Chance of losing
78%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 52%
Sly Man says fav wins 22%
Lay edge +30pp The market rates the fav 30 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 95 vs field mean 126.1 (z = -2.48)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:00 Dundalk (AW)
    Nevermindtherain
    Model vs market SR 83 vs field mean 126.8 (z = -2.50)
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 79%
  2. 19:15 Kempton (AW)
    Arabian Summer
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    8/13
    Loses 67%
  3. 14:46 Nottingham
    Star Rose
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 73%
  4. 17:15 Kempton (AW)
    Crown The Future
    Trainer form drift Trainer Tony Carroll: 6/94 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 67%
  5. 16:45 Kempton (AW)
    Girls Allowed
    Going switch 0-from-3 (0 placed) on good to soft or adjacent going.
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 71%