The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 29 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
12:42 Bath David Cole Memorial EBF Novice Stakes (Div I) (GBB/GBBPlus Race)

Lay Lady Phillips

Price
4/7
Liability
£0.57
Chance of losing
67%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 57%
Sly Man says fav wins 33%
Lay edge +24pp The market rates the fav 24 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 18:00 Southwell (AW)
    Distillate
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 74%
  2. 13:20 Stratford
    Trinity Street
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    6/5
    Loses 77%
  3. 13:05 Punchestown
    Wunderschon
    Model vs market SR 101 vs field mean 128.1 (z = -1.09)
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 72%
  4. 13:12 Bath
    Space Bob
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Void
    10/11
    Loses 63%
  5. 17:00 Southwell (AW)
    Beaujon
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 66%