The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 30 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
15:30 Newmarket Westminster-137 Grosser Preis Von Berlin Novice Stakes (gbb Race)

Lay Carbine Country

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +22pp The market rates the fav 22 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 15:45 Down Royal
    Ballyfad
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Void
    8/11
    Loses 69%
  2. 16:20 Down Royal
    Premier Division
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 68%
  3. 17:30 Dundalk (AW)
    Southern Boulevard
    Model vs market SR 102 vs field mean 123.9 (z = -1.20)
    Fav won
    6/5
    Loses 75%
  4. 15:55 Uttoxeter
    Lou Prince
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 66%
  5. 13:37 Uttoxeter
    Merry Wood
    Class rise Today rank 5 vs last-time-out rank 6 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 64%