The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Saturday 31 October 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
17:05 Southwell (AW) All-weather Championship Is Back Nursery Handicap Stakes (gbbplus Race)

Lay National Honour

Price
2/3
Liability
£0.67
Chance of losing
69%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 54%
Sly Man says fav wins 31%
Lay edge +23pp The market rates the fav 23 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 12:43 Ayr
    The Skecher
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    4/5
    Loses 69%
  2. 14:10 Newmarket
    Haven
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    4/5
    Loses 68%
  3. 13:00 Down Royal
    Kenough
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    10/11
    Loses 70%
  4. 15:50 Down Royal
    Koktail Divin
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Void
    10/11
    Loses 69%
  5. 12:25 Newmarket
    Ibtekar
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 71%