The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Sunday 1 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify

15:05 Worcester Copybet Follow Us On X Maiden Hurdle Race (GBB Race)

Lay Hidden Mountain

Price: 8/13
Liability: £0.62
Chance of losing: 66%

Where the market is wrong

Market says fav wins 55%

Sly Man says fav wins 34%

Lay edge +22pp The market rates the fav 22 points higher than we do.

Class rise Today rank 5 vs last-time-out rank 6 (delta -1). Rising in class.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

12:17 Curragh

Choctaw Nation

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

8/13

Loses 65%
13:20 Worcester

Johnny's Jury

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

8/11

Loses 64%
13:13 Carlisle

Keops des Bordes

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

11/10

Loses 68%
14:50 Cork

Love Me Tender

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
Fav won

6/5

Loses 69%
15:40 Worcester

Theatre Tom

Trainer form drift Recent form '757/4F' — latest 1st position carries decay-weighted average of -0.59.
Lay landed

18/13

Loses 72%