The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Monday 2 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
18:45 Chelmsford (AW) AWC Season 14 Has Begun EBF Fillies' Restricted Novice Stakes (For Horses In Bands C And D) (GBB Race)

Lay Wedyan

Price
5/6
Liability
£0.83
Chance of losing
72%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 49%
Sly Man says fav wins 28%
Lay edge +21pp The market rates the fav 21 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 88 vs field mean 108.1 (z = -0.63)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 14:45 Southwell
    Rices Pool
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 72%
  2. 14:15 Southwell
    Chinese Whispers
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    3/2
    Loses 73%