The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Tuesday 3 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
18:00 Wolverhampton (AW) All Weather Championship Is Back EBF Maiden Stakes (GBB Race)

Lay Red Blue Point

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +26pp The market rates the fav 26 points higher than we do.

Model vs market SR 89 vs field mean 122.1 (z = -1.34)

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:45 Fairyhouse
    Bon Bon Fizz
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    8/11
    Loses 68%
  2. 13:02 Lingfield
    Burk Flight
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 74%
  3. 17:00 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Oppenheimer
    Going switch 0-from-4 (0 placed) on good or adjacent going.
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 66%
  4. 13:37 Lingfield
    The Perfect Poet
    Trainer form drift Trainer Ben Pauling: 3/50 = 6% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Fav won
    2/3
    Loses 64%
  5. 16:30 Wolverhampton (AW)
    Mini Mac
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 64%