The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Wednesday 4 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
16:20 Wexford Thank You To All Our Sponsors & Supporters In 2026 (c & G) (pro/am) Flat Race

Lay Hartford

Price
1/2
Liability
£0.50
Chance of losing
70%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 60%
Sly Man says fav wins 30%
Lay edge +30pp The market rates the fav 30 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:00 Wexford
    Palinca
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    1/2
    Loses 64%
  2. 13:25 Chepstow
    Order On Time
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    2/3
    Loses 68%
  3. 13:58 Chepstow
    A Sight To Sea
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    8/11
    Loses 68%
  4. 12:35 Musselburgh
    True Heart
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    5/4
    Loses 79%
  5. 16:05 Dundalk (AW)
    Apache Outlaw
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    18/13
    Loses 76%