The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Thursday 5 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Fav won Verify
12:50 Clonmel Irish Stallion Farms EBF Maiden Hurdle

Lay Unflinching

Price
5/6
Liability
£0.83
Chance of losing
70%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 49%
Sly Man says fav wins 30%
Lay edge +19pp The market rates the fav 19 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 13:25 Clonmel
    Rokanako
    Trainer form drift Trainer Edward F Power: 1/12 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (on par).
    Fav won
    5/6
    Loses 70%
  2. 13:52 Newbury
    Nan's Choice
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    5/6
    Loses 66%
  3. 16:45 Chelmsford (AW)
    Tough Decision
    Class rise Today rank 3 vs last-time-out rank 5 (delta -2). Rising in class.
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 66%
  4. 14:30 Chelmsford (AW)
    Eighty Eight
    Going switch 0-from-7 (1 placed) on good or adjacent going.
    Fav won
    5/4
    Loses 67%
  5. 15:33 Newbury
    Wordfromhome
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Fav won
    18/13
    Loses 68%