The Fade Book

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day

Friday 6 November 2026

One favourite. One lay. Every day. Sly Man’s pick for the day’s weakest favourite — where the market’s built the price on last-time form and the numbers say otherwise.

Sly Man’s Lay of the Day High conviction

Today’s most vulnerable favourite.

Lay landed Verify
17:45 Dundalk (AW) Irish Stallion Farms EBF Fillies Maiden

Lay Sensational Filly

Price
8/13
Liability
£0.62
Chance of losing
71%
Where the market is wrong
Market says fav wins 55%
Sly Man says fav wins 29%
Lay edge +26pp The market rates the fav 26 points higher than we do.

Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.

Sly Man’s next five to fade

Every favourite our numbers price weaker than the market does, ranked. The Lay of the Day sits above; these five sit next in line.

  1. 12:50 Fontwell
    Smokehouse
    Class rise Today rank 5 vs last-time-out rank 6 (delta -1). Rising in class.
    Fav won
    Evs
    Loses 70%
  2. 17:00 Newcastle (AW)
    Mobilizing
    Model vs market Drifter — strict majority of bookies lengthened, none shortened.
    Lay landed
    18/13
    Loses 76%
  3. 15:43 Fontwell
    Winston's Oath
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Lay landed
    11/10
    Loses 69%
  4. 19:15 Dundalk (AW)
    On Just Terms
    Trainer form drift Trainer Joseph Patrick O'Brien: 9/117 = 8% strike rate over the last 30 days (cold).
    Lay landed
    Evs
    Loses 66%
  5. 13:25 Fontwell
    Sea Warrior
    Model vs market Our numbers price the favourite below the market.
    Fav won
    11/10
    Loses 66%