Soul Love The Call In Curragh Sprint
Form, going fit, and a yard firing — the signals all point the same way.
Soul Love arrives at the Curragh having finished second on her most recent start, beaten in a race she arguably should have won. Read her last three runs in sequence — a win, a third, a second — and the trajectory is unmistakable: this filly is bang in form, suited by good ground, and she steps into this six-furlong Group 3 with the distance fitting like a glove. Karl Burke's yard has sent out ten winners from 61 runners in a 14-day window, a 16% strike rate that puts them firmly in live-yard territory. Pierre-Louis Jamin, who knows the horse, is back aboard. At 9/4 this is not a skinny price for a Group 3, but the evidence stacks up cleanly enough that the price is fair rather than prohibitive.
Power Blue is the co-favourite and deserves respect — speed is the primary positive driver in the model and his distance and going fit match the conditions, but a trainer at 14% from 22 runners and a form string containing a 33/1 last time suggests erratic profile. Brussels carries the Ryan Moore factor and Aidan O'Brien's yard is running hot at 20%, but the form line shows a 7 most recently at a distance that suits him less, and the model scores him a full 0.6 below Soul Love. The shape of this race points towards Soul Love, and that is who I am backing to win.
The Shape of the Race
The pace map identifies only Big Gossey and East Hampton as hold-up runners, with the remaining seven runners of uncertain style — most likely prominent to midfield. That creates a race likely run at a fair-to-honest pace from the break rather than a crawl. No dominant front-runner is confirmed, which means a genuine early gallop is probable as several runners compete for position over six furlongs. That tempo suits Soul Love, who has form on fast-run races and possesses the finishing kick to pick up runners who have burned their reserves in the first three furlongs.
The Storylines
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Burke yard in live-running form Karl Burke has fired in ten winners from 61 runners in the past 14 days — a 16% strike rate that marks the yard as alert and purposeful heading into this Group 3.
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Soul Love's form reads like a horse about to win Wins, places, and a last-run second — Soul Love's form string 191312 shows a horse consistently competing at the sharp end and threatening to go one better.
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Moore on Brussels — the counter-argument Ryan Moore's 24% career strike rate is the highest jockey figure in this field, and O'Brien's yard is firing at 20% — Brussels is the one danger the form study cannot dismiss.
How it Finishes
LLaMa’s predicted 1-2-3-4 — with the actual result tagged on.
Soul Love
Top of the model ranking at 5.80, positive form, going, and distance fit all confirmed — Burke's yard is live and Jamin retains the ride on a filly whose last three runs show a winner in waiting.
Brussels
Ryan Moore at 24% strike rate on a horse from a 20%-striking O'Brien yard is serious money; the 7 on the form string is the only hesitation, but class and connections keep him honest.
Power Blue
Co-favourite with strong speed and going/distance fit, but the inconsistent SPs and modest trainer strike rate cap confidence — third is the realistic ceiling.
Royal Bay Cen
133 days off the track is a real question mark, but a last-run win and a market that has him at 4/1 suggests connections are quietly confident — best each-way alternative.
Soul Love to win, 2 units at 9/4. The conviction here is medium — she is the clear model leader, the form reads right, the going and distance are confirmed fits, and Burke's yard is live. The only credible danger is Brussels with Moore aboard, and a 0.64-point model gap plus a weaker recent form figure keeps him second in the order. Power Blue's erratic price history gives me pause despite the co-favourite tag. There is no FOX'S NOTEBOOK entry to square up against here, so the call stands on its own merits: Soul Love, win only, best price 9/4.