← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Knight Frank East Anglia Apprentice Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Panelli
MEDIUM Advised 4/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Panelli (SR:80, 4/1) is clearly the most able horse in this field on Saturday Rating — an 8-point edge over the next-best Stormy Music (SR:72) in a low-grade Class 5 sprint. The 26% market move in represents serious confidence from connections and the market combined, and Stuart Williams at 15% strike rate is a solid yard. A mark drop of 5lb since last win on a similar class level (ClassMv:=) is a genuine invitation, and while GoingFit:~ on good-to-firm is not ideal, it is not a disqualifying flag. The 4lb weight concession to the top two is manageable given the SR superiority, and the apprentice Chloe Lyons riding at 9-13 still leaves Panelli on a reasonable burden for the class. Each-way alternative: Just Typical. Main danger: Stormy Music — Stormy Music (SR:72) is trained by Andrew Balding at a 19% career strike rate — the strongest yard in the field — and at 9-4 carries the joint-lightest weight, a real physical advantage over Panelli's 9-13, even if the 27% drift is a note of caution.
Full result
Winner: Stormy Music (GB) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Stormy Music Fox #2 5/1
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2
Born A Rebel 4/1
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3
Decalogue 12/1
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4
Just Typical Fox #3 4/1
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5
Home Hero Fox #4 4/1
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6
Dashing Dick 7/1
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7
Panelli Fox #1 4/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Panelli 4/1 7TH
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2
Stormy Music 9/2 SP 13/2 🏆 WON
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3
Just Typical 4/1 🏁 4TH
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4
Home Hero 4/1 5TH