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Hwfa Williams - Founder Of Sandown Park Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Elan d'Or
MEDIUM Advised 4/1 Est. 42%
Mr Fox says
Elan d'Or (SR 95) holds the highest Saturday Rating in this three-runner field, a meaningful edge over Edwin Hubble (SR 89) and particularly Interstate (SR 68). The form string 11-503 shows two wins earlier in the season, and while the recent 5-0-3 sequence suggests a dip, this is a Class 4 handicap where the SR advantage is real. Carrying 9-10 versus Edwin Hubble's 9-1 is a 9lb pull in weight yet Elan d'Or still holds the rating lead — that combination is the core of the case. GoingFit:~ indicates moderate comfort on Good to Firm, which is not a negative flag, and Stuart Williams (15% SR) with Marco Ghiani is a solid combination. The MarkMv:+6 is a slight negative flag, but at 4/1 in a three-horse field the price represents genuine value against a horse (Edwin Hubble) who has a confirmed poor record on this going (GoingFit:-). Each-way alternative: Edwin Hubble. Main danger: Edwin Hubble — The 20% market support and Oisin Murphy booking (22% strike rate, 1,269 career rides) suggest connections believe the first-time blinkers can unlock ability, and if the going recorded as Good to Firm is on the faster end — mitigating the GoingFit:- concern — Edwin Hubble's 9-1 weight advantage over Elan d'Or becomes a genuine threat.
Full result
Winner: Edwin Hubble (IRE) at SP 5/6F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Edwin Hubble Fox #2 5/4
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2
Interstate Fox #3 6/4
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3
Elan d'Or Fox #1 7/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3