← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Simon Davis Big 60th Birthday Bash Fillies' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Zarinca
MEDIUM Advised 7/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Zarinca (SR:69, 7/1) is the most compelling multi-signal case in the field. The 12% market move inward is the standout behavioural indicator — money has come for this horse in a race where nearly every other runner has drifted, some dramatically. She carries a favourable 9-7, giving her a 2lb weight advantage over the top-rated Hauteluce (SR:71, 9-9) and a 6lb edge on top-weight Dream Illusion (SR:69, 9-13). Course form is confirmed with W1P1 at Southwell, and a going-fit reading of '~' on this Good surface is workmanlike rather than damaging. Trainer Bethell (15% strike rate) and jockey Beasley (15% strike rate) represent a sharp professional combination, and the form-string shows a recent win (rightmost position shows 4, but the 1 two runs back at this class level points to proven winning ability). Running off the same class mark, the weight and market signals align convincingly. Each-way alternative: Filly Eilish. Main danger: Hauteluce — Hauteluce (SR:71, 11/2) is the highest-rated runner in the field, drops a class, and is trained by Ed Walker (15% strike rate) — the SR edge alone makes her a genuine threat even with the unknown going and distance fit.
Full result
Winner: Hauteluce (FR) at SP 100/30. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Hauteluce Fox #2 9/2
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2
Blue Celestial 11/2
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3
Kiss Me My Love 6/1
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4
Ravishing Beauty 11/1
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5
Filly Eilish Fox #3 7/2
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6
Court Of Stars 22/1
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7
Zarinca Fox #1 7/1
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8
Dream Illusion Fox #4 4/1
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9
Gifts Differing 40/1
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10
Zermatt Star 33/1
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11
Kartini 40/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Zarinca 7/1 7TH
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2
Hauteluce 11/2 SP 100/30 🏆 WON
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3
Filly Eilish 7/2 5TH
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4
Dream Illusion 9/2 8TH