← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Zyn Pole Position EBF Novice Stakes (GBB/GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Ancestor
MEDIUM Advised 4/9 SP 8/15F Est. 62%
Mr Fox says
Ancestor (SR 155, 4/9) is a dominant favourite here with strong justification. At 9-11 versus Tropical Sands' 8-13, the weight concession of 12lb to the only realistic rival is significant — that is a substantial real-terms advantage in a three-runner novice. William Haggas (21% career strike rate from 1,047 runners) is one of the sharpest operators in the game, and Tom Marquand partners a horse priced at 4/9 in a Class 3 novice — the market is unambiguous. The recent form line of 4-1 shows clear improvement last time out, and coming back in just 30 days signals the stable is happy with the horse and ready to win. Each-way alternative: Tropical Sands. Main danger: Tropical Sands — Tropical Sands (SR 156, 2/1) edges Ancestor on raw SR by one point and receives a generous 12lb weight allowance at 8-13, which on good ground over 1m2f could fully offset the ability gap — Ed Walker's horse is stepping up in class but the market respects it as a genuine threat.
Full result
Winner: Ancestor (GB) at SP 8/15F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Ancestor Fox #1 1/2
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2
Tropical Sands Fox #2 15/8
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3
Golden Caviar Fox #3 33/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3