← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Carling Novice Stakes (GBB Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Tawakal
HIGH Advised 2/1 Est. 52%
Mr Fox says
Tawakal (SR:156, 2/1) is emphatically the most able horse in this field by a significant margin — 18 SR points clear of the next-rated Al Widyan and 43 points ahead of the drifting favourite Nabati (SR:113). That SR:156 from a single run represents a striking debut performance, and Simon & Ed Crisford at 20% strike rate with James Doyle aboard is a formidable pairing for a progressive juvenile. Nabati has drifted 8% in the market — from 4/9 to current odds — which is a meaningful signal against a short-priced favourite, and the ClassMv:↓3 drop suggests Appleby is not treating this as a priority engagement. Tawakal runs at the same class level (ClassMv:=) and holds a clear SR superiority that should translate directly on Good to Firm ground at Newmarket July course. Each-way alternative: Al Widyan. Main danger: Nabati — Despite the 8% market drift, Nabati has Charlie Appleby's 30% trainer strike rate and a 1-2 form line showing a previous win, and if dropping three class levels has freshened the horse up, the class relief could offset the SR deficit at the short trip.
Full result
Winner: Nabati (IRE) at SP 2/5F. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Nabati Fox #2 4/9
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2
Tawakal Fox #1 2/1
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3
Roll Up Raymond 150/1
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4
Al Widyan Fox #3 16/1
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5
The Resdev Rocket 150/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3