← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Rekorderlig Fillies' Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Areti
MEDIUM Advised 9/4 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Areti (SR 83, 9/4) is the class-leader in this field by a clear margin and drops one tier in class, which is a genuine positive in a modest Class 5 handicap. Billy Loughnane's 19% career strike rate is the strongest jockey booking on the card, and GoingFit:+ confirms she handles today's good-to-firm ground. The 17% drift is the main concern, but at 9lb lighter than Hilltop (10-2 vs 9-10) she has a meaningful weight advantage over the top-rated SR runner. Her last run was just 9 days ago, showing connections are happy she's in form, and the class drop off a mark 1lb lower than her last win (MarkMv:-1) makes her the most professionally placed horse in this race. Each-way alternative: Hilltop. Main danger: Hilltop — Hilltop (SR 79, 5/2) is the market's marginal favourite, has tightened 5% since opening, and Saffie Osborne's booking is solid — she carries only 3lb more than Rogue Citation and 8lb more than Areti, but if the drift on Areti is market intelligence rather than noise, Hilltop's consistent recent form (4-1-3-4 in the last five) could see her grab this on the flat Newmarket straight.
Full result
Winner: Rogue Citation (IRE) at SP 15/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Rogue Citation Fox #3 6/1
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2
Show Me Gold 16/1
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3
Albeseeingyer 4/1
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4
Hilltop Fox #2 5/2
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5
Lexington Express 20/1
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6
Melodical 8/1
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7
Areti Fox #1 5/2
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3