← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
William Hill, Market Place, Thirsk Handicap Stakes (GBBPlus Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Sudu
MEDIUM Advised 5/2 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Sudu (SR 92, 5/2) is the highest-rated horse in the field at a competitive weight of 9-3, and critically holds both DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ — the only runner with confirmed ability at today's trip AND today's good ground. The Roger Varian yard runs at 19% career strike rate, among the strongest in this field, with Ray Dawson a reliable 15% booking. The 373-day absence is the principal concern, hence Medium rather than High confidence, but the headgear addition (hood) and the MarkMv:+10 are offset by the class drop (↓1) which means the handicapper has given him a route back in. The form string '/5418-' shows a dash last time (non-completion or void), yet prior to that he was mixing competitive form at a higher class, and the connections would not be running him fresh here without a plan. Each-way alternative: Wanderlust. Main danger: Master Vintner — Master Vintner (SR 96, 9/4) carries the highest SR in the field and GoingFit:+ confirms it handles today's conditions, and despite a 22% market drift — which cannot be ignored — Ralph Beckett's 17% strike rate and confirmed good-ground form mean it remains a genuine threat if the drift is an overreaction to its recent 722 form.
Full result
Winner: Master Vintner (IRE) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Master Vintner Fox #2 11/4
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2
Golden West 16/1
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3
Majestic 5/1
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4
Wahdan 13/2
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5
Wanderlust Fox #3 5/1
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6
Sudu Fox #1 2/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3