← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Edward Doran's Birthday Handicap
Mr Fox’s call
Neo Smart
MEDIUM Advised 5/1 Est. 28%
Mr Fox says
Neo Smart (SR:70, 5/1, Wgt:9-5) is the standout selection on the combination of market movement and mark. The Mkt:in26% steam is the most emphatic market signal in this field by a considerable margin — money is clearly arriving for a reason — and the MarkMv:-3 means connections are catching this horse on a lower mark than his last winning effort, the most favourable scenario in a handicap. At 9-5, he carries 9lb less than top-weight Ohailbhic (SR:74) despite having a competitive SR of 70, giving a meaningful weight advantage relative to ability. Form figures 197745 show he has placed in stronger company and ran a respectable 5th most recently — the Bolger yard at 9% strike rate is workmanlike but the strong market move suggests a confidence confidence signal that overrides that concern. Each-way alternative: Fortuity. Main danger: Caitouna — Caitouna (SR:71, 9/1) carries the lightest competitive weight at 9-1, has the top jockey booking in Colin Keane (16% strike rate), and the three-star AI rating with a last-time-out 6th from a form string showing a recent win (559196 with a 1 two runs back) represents progressive three-year-old profile that could outrun the 9/1.
Full result
Winner: Alfred Tennyson (IRE) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
-
1
Alfred Tennyson 13/2
-
2
Tokyo Treasure 17/2
-
3
Morehampton 13/2
-
4
Neo Smart Fox #1 7/2
-
5
Send Harry 9/1
-
6
Fortuity Fox #2 8/1
-
7
Bundle Of Interest 18/1
-
8
Summer Snow 10/1
-
9
Ballymagreehan 15/2
-
10
Bofa Beach 20/1
-
11
Caitouna Fox #3 10/1
-
12
Reimagined 18/1
-
—
Ohailbhic Fox #4 -
Top 4 — how each finished
-
1
-
2
-
3
-
4