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Coolmore Stud Churchill Stakes (Listed)
Mr Fox’s call
Bellesque
MEDIUM Advised 7/2 Est. 30%
Mr Fox says
Bellesque (SR 159, 7/2) holds the highest Saturday Rating in the field and, crucially, carries 9-0 — 5lb less than the 9-5 rivals, a meaningful advantage in a juvenile Listed contest where marginal class differences are often settled by the scale. The Joseph Patrick O'Brien yard's #1 is clearly Bellesque: Dylan Browne McMonagle (15%, 983 rides) is the stronger jockey booking over J M Sheridan on Venetian Power, and the 2-1 form (last two runs: second then winner) shows a progressive profile. The market drift of 8% is a mild concern but in a race where several rivals have drifted more sharply (City of Dubai out 16%, Venetian Power out 7%), it does not suggest money is actively going against her. Each-way alternative: Sergei Diaghilev. Main danger: City of Dubai — City of Dubai (SR 156) is trained by the high-strike-rate Pat Twomey (25%) and was a winner on debut — if the 16% drift reflects nothing more than positional betting adjustment rather than stable concern, its raw ability could see it confirm form at this level.
Full result
Winner: Sergei Diaghilev (IRE) at SP 5/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Sergei Diaghilev Fox #2 15/8
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2
City of Dubai Fox #3 7/2
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3
Bellesque Fox #1 7/2
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4
Sea Of Rain 17/2
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5
Venetian Power Fox #4 11/2
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6
Full Volume 11/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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