← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Dubai Duty Free Shergar Cup Mile (Class 2 Handicap)
Mr Fox’s call
Crown Board
MEDIUM Advised 6/1 SP 10/1 Est. 22%
Mr Fox says
Crown Board (SR 105, 6/1, 9-12) is one of three co-leaders on SR and carries a manageable weight, but the decisive factor is a 16% market move inward — the strongest steaming in the field — on a horse whose recent form string (-48032) shows a latest run of '2', confirming he arrived at the line in good order last time. Jane Chapple-Hyam runs at a 12% strike rate with a field size of 338, modest but workmanlike, and Mme Frida Valle Skar brings Shergar Cup competitiveness. Going and distance fit are both moderate (~) rather than negative, which compares favourably to rivals like Cerulean Bay, Two Tribes, Ebt's Guard and Ozat who all carry GoingFit:- on today's good-to-firm ground. At 6/1 he offers genuine each-way value relative to his SR standing and the market conviction behind him. Each-way alternative: Bullet Point. Main danger: Ebt's Guard — Ebt's Guard (SR 103, 11/2) has steamed 29% in the market — the second-strongest move in the field — carries only 9-12, has course form (W0P2 at Ascot) and is at the same class level, meaning if the market money is correct about a revival, he has the track record and weight to deliver.
Full result
Winner: Crown Board at SP 10/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Crown Board Fox #1 SP 10/1
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2
Bullet Point Fox #2 5/1
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3
Ozat 4/1
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4
Ebt's Guard Fox #3 11/2
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5
Two Tribes 6/1
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6
Popmaster 12/1
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7
Mister Winston 11/1
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8
Serengeti 50/1
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9
Cerulean Bay Fox #4 13/2
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10
Fondo Blanco 12/1
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—
Storm Star 10/1
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—
Hickory 7/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Crown Board 6/1 SP 10/1 🏆 WON
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2
Bullet Point 9/2 🥈 2ND
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3
Ebt's Guard 11/2 🏁 4TH
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4
Cerulean Bay 11/2 9TH