← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Irish Stallion Farms EBF Dick Hern Stakes (Listed Race)
Mr Fox’s call
Fallen Angel
MEDIUM Advised 10/11 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Fallen Angel (SR 121, 10/11) is the clear class standout in this Listed field, with an SR that dwarfs the next-best Noche Clasica (SR 104) by 17 points. The form string 1110-4 shows three consecutive wins before a fourth-place return — the last run 86 days ago at this same Listed level (ClassMv:=) signals freshness rather than decline, and the yard's 19% strike rate with James Doyle (18%) is a quality booking. The market drift of 16% is the main concern and must be respected, but no rival carries the evidence base to topple her on ability: Alobayyah (SR 101) steps up a tier off a mark 6lb higher than her last win and has drifted 6%; Calendar Girl (SR 113) has 302 days off the track and a mark 12lb above her last win. Fallen Angel's raw SR advantage is simply too large to dismiss, and first-time cheekpieces (HG:p) suggest connections are priming her to fire. Each-way alternative: Noche Clasica. Main danger: Noche Clasica — Noche Clasica (SR 104, 17/2) has steamed in 43% in the market, GoingFit:+ and DistFit:+ on today's conditions, and stays at the same class — the money is clearly on her being sharper and more race-ready than a 86-day-absent Fallen Angel.
Full result
Winner: Calendar Girl (GB) at SP 13/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Calendar Girl Fox #4 8/1
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2
Pacific Mission 11/1
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3
Fallen Angel Fox #1 evn
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4
Rumba Numba 22/1
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5
Noche Clasica Fox #2 10/1
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6
Blingy's Sister 16/1
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7
Alobayyah Fox #3 9/2
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8
Aviatrice 40/1
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9
Mostar Dreams 28/1
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10
Silenciosa 28/1
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Maeva -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Fallen Angel 10/11 🥉 3RD
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2
Noche Clasica 17/2 5TH
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3
Alobayyah 9/2 7TH
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4
Calendar Girl 8/1 SP 13/2 🏆 WON