← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
Betway Ashton Heath Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Pellitory
MEDIUM Advised 9/2 SP 3/1 Est. 32%
Mr Fox says
Pellitory (SR:92, 9/2) has steamed in 26% in the market — the strongest market move in the field by a wide margin — which is a powerful signal in a small six-runner handicap where money is concentrated and informed. Daniel Tudhope (16% strike rate, 819 career rides) is a sharp booking for O'Meara's yard, and with Oisin Murphy taken for stablemate New Image, Tudhope's presence here identifies Pellitory as the yard's #1 from the Stable:1 pair. At 10-1 weight against Crimson Spirit's 10-2, Pellitory carries only 1lb less but has a 10-point SR deficit — however, the 26% market steam suggests an angle not fully visible in the form string, and the ClassMv:= means no class rise to navigate. The GoingFit:- is a concern on Good ground but the market is clearly overriding that worry. Each-way alternative: Christian David. Main danger: Crimson Spirit — Crimson Spirit (SR:102, 2/1) is the highest-rated horse in the field with proven DistFit:+ and GoingFit:+ on today's conditions, and despite a 6% drift and a 4lb higher mark than its last win, it remains shortest-priced and has the clearest class profile for this race.
Full result
Winner: Pellitory (GB) at SP 3/1. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Pellitory Fox #1 9/2
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2
Crimson Spirit Fox #2 9/4
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3
Christian David Fox #3 11/4
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4
Yanifer 12/1
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5
New Image 9/1
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Moonshine 4/1
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Wechaad -
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
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2
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3