← Honest Record · Pick Winner · Mr Fox
William Hill Extra Place Races Daily Handicap Stakes
Mr Fox’s call
Castle Rock
MEDIUM Advised 5/4 Est. 38%
Mr Fox says
Castle Rock (SR 105, 5/4) carries the highest ability rating in the field by a clear margin — 13 points above Arctic Dawn, the next best — and does so off the lightest weight in the race at 8-11, giving it a decisive lbs advantage over every rival. The Charlie Appleby yard runs at 31% from 193 runners, the strongest trainer strike rate in the field, and Billy Loughnane (19%, 1705 career rides) is the superior jockey booking over stablemate Military Code's inexperienced Toby Moore, confirming Castle Rock is Appleby's yard #1. Form of 411- shows two wins and a second from three completed starts, and the market has shortened 11% since opening — quiet but consistent professional support. The principal risk is the unproven distance and going (DistFit:? GoingFit:?) given a limited profile, but the class and weight edge over a modest Class 2 field with nothing above SR 94 among rivals is compelling. Each-way alternative: Arctic Dawn. Main danger: Arctic Dawn — Arctic Dawn (SR 94, 6/1) is the only rival within 11 SR points of Castle Rock, has proven distance and going fitness (DistFit:+ GoingFit:+), and the Hector Crouch booking at 17% strike rate is solid — though the 25% market drift and MarkMv:+9 are real negatives to weigh.
Full result
Winner: Arctic Dawn (GB) at SP 11/2. Mr Fox’s picks highlighted in gold.
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1
Arctic Dawn Fox #2 6/1
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2
Castle Rock Fox #1 11/8
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3
Humam Fox #4 12/1
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4
Military Code 16/1
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5
Pinatubo's Legacy 16/1
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6
Betty Clover 22/1
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7
Angel Hunter Fox #3 9/2
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8
Sword 11/1
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9
Kodi Lion 28/1
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10
Morte Point 12/1
Top 4 — how each finished
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1
Castle Rock 5/4 🥈 2ND
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2
Arctic Dawn 6/1 SP 11/2 🏆 WON
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3
Angel Hunter 9/2 7TH
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4
Humam 12/1 🥉 3RD